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What will be the outcome of Ukraine's counterattack in Russia's Kursk region by March 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant territorial gain • 25%
Minor territorial gain • 25%
No change • 25%
Territorial loss • 25%
Verified reports from credible news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or official Ukrainian government announcements
Story
Blinken: Ukraine's Kursk Position Critical for Future Talks Amid Counterattack
Jan 6, 2025, 09:24 AM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during a visit to Seoul, stated on Monday that Ukraine's position in Russia's Kursk region is critical for any future negotiations with Russia. This statement comes as Moscow reported that Kyiv launched a significant counterattack in the border area. Blinken emphasized that the outgoing Biden administration, which has provided billions in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia's invasion in February 2022, aims to ensure Ukraine has a strong position in potential peace talks. He noted that Ukraine's foothold in Kursk would be a key factor in negotiations expected in the coming year. Additionally, Blinken warned that even if negotiations occur, Ukraine would require 'adequate security assurances' to protect against further aggression from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who he believes retains imperial ambitions and might seek to re-attack after any ceasefire.
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No significant change • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ukraine gains control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukrainian control solidified • 25%
Russian forces regain territory • 25%
Ukraine gains significant territory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Russia regains all lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ukraine expands control further into Kursk • 25%
Russia regains all lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant Russian counterattack • 25%
Significant Ukrainian gains • 25%
Minor Ukrainian gains • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Ukrainian advance • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russian defense holds • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Russian forces retain control • 25%
Ukrainian forces gain control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine gains control over additional territories • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Russia regains control over all contested territories • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ukrainians gain 500 square kilometers • 25%
Ukrainians gain 200 square kilometers • 25%
Russians reclaim 200 square kilometers • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation of Russia • 25%
Condemnation of Ukraine • 25%
Calls for peace talks • 25%
Increased military aid to Ukraine • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Calls for ceasefire and negotiations • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%