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Market
What will be the outcome of UK legal actions against smuggling operations in 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased convictions • 25%
Decreased convictions • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
UK court records and government press releases
Story
UK Migrant Crossings via Channel Up 25% in 2024 to 36,816, Second-Highest Since 2018
Jan 1, 2025, 08:27 AM
In 2024, a total of 36,816 migrants crossed the English Channel to the United Kingdom, marking a 25% increase from 2023, according to provisional government figures. This figure represents the second-highest number of successful crossings since records began in 2018, surpassed only by the record set in 2022. The surge in crossings underscores the ongoing challenge faced by UK authorities in managing irregular migration across the Channel. The year 2024 was also the deadliest on record for drownings in the Channel, intensifying concerns over the safety of such journeys. Despite government efforts to deter crossings and dismantle smuggling operations, the number of migrants attempting the perilous journey in small boats has continued to rise.
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Similar markets
Increased support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Mixed opinions • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Adoption of new smuggling routes • 25%
Shift to other illegal activities • 25%
Increased smuggling attempts • 25%
Social media restrictions • 25%
Other • 25%
Travel bans • 25%
Mobile phone restrictions • 25%
Successful reduction in smuggling • 25%
Policy reversal or modification • 25%
Increase in smuggling activities • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Human rights organizations • 25%
Labour Party • 25%
Liberal Democrats • 25%
Settlements reached • 25%
UK wins all challenges • 25%
UK loses all challenges • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%