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Will the UK and France reach a new agreement on Channel migration by mid-2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the UK or French government
Story
UK Migrant Crossings via Channel Up 25% in 2024 to 36,816, Second-Highest Since 2018
Jan 1, 2025, 08:27 AM
In 2024, a total of 36,816 migrants crossed the English Channel to the United Kingdom, marking a 25% increase from 2023, according to provisional government figures. This figure represents the second-highest number of successful crossings since records began in 2018, surpassed only by the record set in 2022. The surge in crossings underscores the ongoing challenge faced by UK authorities in managing irregular migration across the Channel. The year 2024 was also the deadliest on record for drownings in the Channel, intensifying concerns over the safety of such journeys. Despite government efforts to deter crossings and dismantle smuggling operations, the number of migrants attempting the perilous journey in small boats has continued to rise.
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Other measures • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased joint patrols • 25%
New bilateral agreement • 25%
France • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
No significant measure • 25%
Joint France-UK initiative • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease of more than 25% • 25%
Increase • 25%
Decrease of 10-25% • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
More than 50,000 • 25%
40,001 to 50,000 • 25%
30,000 to 40,000 • 25%
Less than 30,000 • 25%
Deportation agreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased border security • 25%
Dismantling smuggling networks • 25%