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What will be the outcome of Trump-Sheinbaum talks on drug trafficking and immigration by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful agreement with new measures • 25%
Partial agreement with limited measures • 25%
No significant agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. and Mexican governments, or major news outlets
Story
Trump Announces Fentanyl Campaign, Cites 25% Tariff in Mexico Talks
Nov 28, 2024, 12:40 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has announced plans for a large-scale advertising campaign in the United States to raise awareness about the dangers of fentanyl. The initiative aims to highlight the devastating effects of the drug, which Trump described as causing 'millions of lives being so needlessly destroyed.' The campaign is part of a broader effort to address drug-related issues in the country. Additionally, Trump revealed that he had a productive conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, during which they discussed strategies to combat drug trafficking and illegal immigration. Sheinbaum reportedly agreed to take measures to curb migration through Mexico to the U.S. following discussions that included a 25% tariff threat from Trump.
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Significant reduction in migration • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Joint drug trafficking initiative • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Comprehensive agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Minor tensions • 25%
Stable relations • 25%
Improved cooperation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Agreement on tariffs • 25%
Agreement on migration • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reduction in deportations • 25%
Increased consular support • 25%
Bilateral agreements on migration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Decreased cooperation • 25%
No change in cooperation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Severely damaged relations • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Other • 25%