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What will be the outcome of Trudeau's cabinet shuffle by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased stability • 25%
No change • 25%
Decreased stability • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Canadian government or credible news outlets
Story
Trudeau Faces Calls to Resign as 16 Liberal MPs Demand Departure Amid Freeland's Resignation and Upcoming Cabinet Shuffle
Dec 20, 2024, 11:15 AM
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing mounting pressure to resign as the number of Liberal MPs publicly calling for his departure has reached 16, following the abrupt resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. Freeland's resignation was attributed to a policy clash with Trudeau, particularly regarding how to respond to incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of imposing significant tariffs on Canadian imports. In response to the escalating crisis, Trudeau is set to conduct a cabinet shuffle, which will include the reassignment of four ministers and the promotion of eight new Liberal MPs. This reshuffle is seen as a critical move to stabilize his government amid growing discontent within his party and the looming challenges posed by the incoming Trump administration.
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Trudeau retains leadership • 25%
Trudeau steps down voluntarily • 25%
Trudeau is ousted • 25%
No leadership challenge occurs • 25%
1-2 • 25%
3-4 • 25%
5 or more • 25%
None • 25%
Trudeau government survives • 25%
Trudeau government falls • 25%
Vote delayed • 25%
No vote held • 25%
Trudeau remains PM • 25%
Trudeau resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Liberal Party leadership change • 25%
Chrystia Freeland returns • 25%
Bill Morneau • 25%
Anita Anand • 25%
Other • 25%
Mark Carney • 25%
Bill Morneau • 25%
Melanie Joly • 25%
Other • 25%
Motion Passes • 33%
Motion Fails • 33%
Motion Withdrawn • 34%
Chrystia Freeland • 25%
Mark Carney • 25%
Melanie Joly • 25%
Other • 25%
Chrystia Freeland • 25%
Dominic Leblanc • 25%
Chandra Arya • 25%
Other • 25%
Vote passes, Trudeau resigns • 25%
Vote passes, Trudeau remains • 25%
Vote fails • 25%
No vote initiated • 25%