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Market
How many cabinet members will resign from the Canadian government by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
1-2 • 25%
3-4 • 25%
5 or more • 25%
None • 25%
Official announcements from the Canadian Prime Minister's Office or major news outlets like CBC or CTV News
Story
Canadian PM Trudeau Weighs Resignation or Prorogation Amid Cabinet Resignations and Party Pressure
Dec 16, 2024, 07:06 PM
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is reportedly considering resignation or prorogation, according to sources cited by CTV News. Trudeau has conveyed to his cabinet that he is contemplating these options and may address Parliament this afternoon. The developments come after the resignation of Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland earlier today, who stepped down over disagreements on handling President Trump's tariff threats. Tensions have risen within the Liberal Party, with MPs publicly urging Trudeau to resign. Multiple cabinet members have also reportedly resigned, leading to increasing instability in the government. Betting markets like Polymarket show odds of up to 88% that Trudeau will resign. The potential resignation marks a significant political upheaval in Canada.
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Increased stability • 25%
No change • 25%
Decreased stability • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Less than 20 • 25%
20 to 25 • 25%
26 to 30 • 25%
More than 30 • 25%
Mark Carney • 25%
Bill Morneau • 25%
Melanie Joly • 25%
Other • 25%
No resignations • 25%
1 minister resigns • 25%
2-3 ministers resign • 25%
More than 3 ministers resign • 25%
Mélanie Joly • 25%
François-Philippe Champagne • 25%
Anita Anand • 25%
Other • 25%
All key members resign • 25%
Most key members resign • 25%
Few key members resign • 25%
No key members resign • 25%
Anita Anand • 25%
Pablo Rodriguez • 25%
Jean-Yves Duclos • 25%
Other • 25%