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What will be the outcome of the U.S. ultimatum to Israel by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Israel meets demands, no aid suspension • 25%
Israel does not meet demands, aid suspended • 25%
Partial compliance, no aid suspension • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official U.S. government announcements or credible news reports
Story
Biden Warns Israel: Improve Gaza Aid Next Week or Face Military Aid Suspension
Nov 11, 2024, 08:53 AM
The United States has issued a stern warning to Israel, demanding significant improvements in the humanitarian situation in Gaza or face a potential suspension of military aid. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin communicated this ultimatum to Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The Biden administration has set a deadline for next week for Israel to enhance access to humanitarian aid in Gaza, with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasizing that Hamas is obstructing a ceasefire. This would be the first time Biden has enforced U.S. laws conditioning military aid. In response, Israel has expanded a humanitarian zone in southern Gaza under pressure from the U.S. administration. The decision on whether Israel has met the U.S. demands will be made this week.
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Israel complies fully • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
No compliance • 25%
U.S. takes no action • 25%
US imposes embargo • 25%
Crisis resolved without embargo • 25%
US retracts ultimatum • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial de-escalation • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Military de-escalation • 25%
Humanitarian aid increase • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other diplomatic measures • 25%
Israel fully complies • 25%
Israel partially complies • 25%
Israel does not comply • 25%
Other • 25%
Widespread support for U.S. stance • 25%
Mixed international reactions • 25%
Widespread criticism of U.S. stance • 25%
Other • 25%
Military action • 25%
Increased negotiations • 25%
No significant change in approach • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Embargo imposed • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Crisis resolved, no embargo • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
Impose arms embargo • 25%
Reduce military aid • 25%
Issue another warning • 25%
Take no action • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Resolution • 25%
Increase aid trucks to 350 per day • 25%
Open a new fifth crossing • 25%
Implement additional humanitarian pauses • 25%
No significant actions taken • 25%
Agreement reached with increased aid • 25%
Agreement reached without increased aid • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Aid restrictions imposed • 25%