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What will be the outcome of the Turkish Parliament vote on troop deployment to Somali waters by December 31, 2024?
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Turkey•Somalia•Turkish Petroleum Corporation•TPAO•MTA Oruç Reis•Alparslan Bayraktar•Turkish•Tayyip Erdogan•Turkish Parliament•Somali
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes, with a two-year mandate • 25%
Yes, with a one-year mandate • 25%
No authorization • 25%
Other • 25%
Official Turkish government announcements and parliamentary records
Story
Turkey Secures Rights to Explore Oil and Gas in Three Somali Blocks, Seeks Troop Deployment
Jul 19, 2024, 08:30 AM
Turkey has secured rights to explore for natural gas and oil in three offshore blocks within Somalia's territorial waters as part of a hydrocarbon cooperation deal between the two countries. The Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) signed the exploration contracts, and the state-of-the-art seismic research vessel, MTA Oruç Reis, is scheduled to depart for Somalia at the end of September. Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar announced that Turkey will explore hydrocarbon resources and can produce if found in the three blocks. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking authorization from the Turkish Parliament for troop deployment to Somali waters to accompany the exploration activities. The motion requests a two-year mandate, subject to renewal.
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Full success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No significant success • 25%
Operations ongoing • 25%
Continues as primary mediator • 25%
Steps back from mediation • 25%
Mediation role shared with other countries • 25%
No longer involved • 25%
Commercially viable oil reserves • 25%
Commercially viable natural gas reserves • 25%
Both commercially viable oil and natural gas reserves • 25%
No commercially viable reserves • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
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Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
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Military incursion into Kobani • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Continued standoff • 25%
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Accepted • 25%
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Significant improvement • 25%
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Deterioration • 25%
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Supportive • 25%
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Sanctions imposed • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
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