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What will be the outcome of the rebel offensive on Damascus by December 31, 2025?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Rebels control Damascus • 25%
Assad retains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Trump Urges U.S. to Stay Out of Syria Amid Unprecedented Rebel Offensive on Damascus
Dec 7, 2024, 03:50 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has declared that the United States should not get involved in the escalating conflict in Syria, where opposition fighters, in an unprecedented move, have taken control of several cities and are advancing towards Damascus in a highly coordinated offensive to potentially overthrow President Bashar al-Assad. Trump emphasized that "Syria is a mess, but it is not our friend," stressing that "this is not our fight" and urging the U.S. to "let it play out" and "do not get involved." He also noted that Russia, due to heavy losses in Ukraine, cannot stop this action.
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Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Government forces repel rebels • 25%
Stalemate ensues • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Assad retains control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Rebels partially encircle Damascus • 25%
Rebels retreat from Damascus • 25%
Rebels fully encircle Damascus • 25%
Rebels fail to encircle Damascus • 25%
Rebels encircle but do not capture Damascus • 25%
Stalemate with no decisive control • 25%
Government retains control of Damascus • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Rebels fully encircle Damascus • 25%
Government regains lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Assad regains control • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Rebels gain significant territory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Assad Regime retains control • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Other • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Opposition gains significant ground • 25%
Regime maintains current positions • 25%
Rebels retreat • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Rebels halted before reaching Damascus • 25%
Government regains lost ground • 25%
Rebels make significant gains but not Damascus • 25%
Rebels gain control of Damascus • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%