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What will be the outcome of the opposition's advance on Damascus by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Opposition takes control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Assad Regime retains control • 25%
Other • 25%
News reports from CNN, BBC, or Reuters detailing the status of Damascus
Story
US Officials: Assad Regime in Syria May Fall in Days, Homs Could Collapse Friday
Dec 7, 2024, 05:53 PM
The Biden administration is increasingly observing signs that the Assad regime in Syria could collapse within days, with the government-held city of Homs potentially falling as soon as Friday night, according to US officials cited by Al-Monitor and CNN. The opposition factions are expected to take control of Homs before turning their attention to Damascus. A senior US official told CNN that an organized coup against Assad's regime is the only thing that could delay the opposition's advance on Damascus. The emerging consensus among five US officials is that the scenario of Assad's regime falling is increasingly plausible.
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Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Assad retains control • 25%
Stalemate ensues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Government forces repel rebels • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Rebels fully encircle Damascus • 25%
Government regains lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Rebels fully encircle Damascus • 25%
Rebels partially encircle Damascus • 25%
Rebels fail to encircle Damascus • 25%
Rebels retreat from Damascus • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Rebels encircle but do not capture Damascus • 25%
Government retains control of Damascus • 25%
Stalemate with no decisive control • 25%
Rebels control Damascus • 25%
Assad retains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Opposition captures Damascus • 25%
Opposition captures other major cities but not Damascus • 25%
Opposition fails to capture any major cities • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Rebels halted before reaching Damascus • 25%
Rebels retreat • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Opposition gains significant ground • 25%
Regime maintains current positions • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
