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What will be the outcome of the next major Russian aerial attack by September 30, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Major damage to infrastructure • 25%
High civilian casualties • 25%
Mostly intercepted • 25%
Other • 25%
Reuters or other reputable news outlets
Story
Russia Launches Third Aerial Attack on Ukraine in Four Days
Aug 31, 2024, 03:47 AM
Ukraine's top commander has reported that Russia is intensifying its military efforts to break through Ukrainian defenses, as confirmed by Reuters. Russia has launched a heavy aerial attack on Ukraine for the third time in four days, deploying missiles and numerous drones, most of which were intercepted by Ukraine's air force. The attacks included guided bombs launched from Russia's Belgorod region. This escalation is part of a massive operation by the Russian army against Ukraine.
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No injuries or significant damage • 25%
Minor injuries and damage • 25%
Major injuries and significant damage • 25%
Airport closures only • 25%
Majority intercepted • 25%
Moderate interception • 25%
Few intercepted • 25%
None intercepted • 25%
Significant damage to infrastructure • 25%
Minimal damage to infrastructure • 25%
No significant damage reported • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
More than 90% drones intercepted, no missiles intercepted • 25%
More than 90% drones intercepted, at least one missile intercepted • 25%
Less than 90% drones intercepted, no missiles intercepted • 25%
Less than 90% drones intercepted, at least one missile intercepted • 25%
Successful strike causing damage • 25%
Successful strike with no damage • 25%
Intercepted by Russian forces • 25%
No further attacks • 25%
August 2024 • 25%
September 2024 • 25%
October 2024 • 25%
November 2024 or later • 25%
Significant damage to infrastructure • 25%
Minimal damage • 25%
No reported damage • 25%
Cannot be determined • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased air defenses • 25%
Retaliatory strikes on Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%