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What will be the outcome of the next major drone and missile attack on Ukraine by September 30, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
More than 90% drones intercepted, no missiles intercepted • 25%
More than 90% drones intercepted, at least one missile intercepted • 25%
Less than 90% drones intercepted, no missiles intercepted • 25%
Less than 90% drones intercepted, at least one missile intercepted • 25%
Reports from the Ukrainian Air Force and verified news outlets
Story
Ukraine Downs 53 Shahed Drones, Faces Iskander-M Missiles in 93% Intercept Rate
Aug 13, 2024, 05:49 AM
Ukraine's air defenses successfully intercepted a significant portion of Russian attacks over two consecutive nights. Initially, Ukraine's air defense systems downed 53 out of 57 Russian-Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones and all four North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles, as reported by the Ukrainian Air Force. These defenses achieved a 93% intercept rate against the Shahed drones. Although KN-23 rarely hit their targets, they pose a serious threat to the population. In a subsequent attack, Russia launched 38 attack drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Ukraine. Ukrainian forces managed to shoot down 30 of the 38 Shahed drones, though none of the Iskander-M ballistic missiles were intercepted. The attacks resulted in injuries to one person and damage to civilian infrastructure.
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Similar markets
Ukraine repels the attack • 25%
Kyiv suffers minor damage • 25%
Kyiv suffers significant damage • 25%
Other cities suffer significant damage • 25%
Significant damage to infrastructure • 25%
Minimal damage to infrastructure • 25%
No significant damage reported • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Majority intercepted • 25%
Moderate interception • 25%
Few intercepted • 25%
None intercepted • 25%
Successful strike causing damage • 25%
Successful strike with no damage • 25%
Intercepted by Russian forces • 25%
No further attacks • 25%
Thwarted with no damage • 25%
Thwarted with minor damage • 25%
Successful with minor damage • 25%
Successful with major damage • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Significant infrastructure damage • 25%
Civilian casualties • 25%
Temporary suspension of flights • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
All drones intercepted • 25%
Some drones intercepted, minor damage • 25%
Some drones intercepted, major damage • 25%
No drones intercepted, significant damage • 25%
Ukraine intercepts >70% of drones • 25%
Russia downs >70% of drones • 25%
Both intercept >70% of drones • 25%
Neither intercept >70% of drones • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
