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What will be the outcome of the next major legal case involving transgender athletes by mid-2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Win for transgender athletes • 33%
Loss for transgender athletes • 33%
Settled out of court • 33%
Court announcements or legal filings
Story
Transgender Swimmer Lia Thomas Loses Legal Battle, Barred from Olympics
Jun 12, 2024, 05:11 PM
Lia Thomas, the US swimmer and first transgender athlete to win an NCAA college title, has lost a legal case against World Aquatics at the Court of Arbitration for Sport. This ruling bars her from competing in the upcoming Olympics. The legal battle centered on rules that prohibit transgender athletes who have experienced male puberty from participating in elite women's races. World Aquatics hailed the decision as a major step forward in efforts to protect women's sport. Thomas had argued that the rules were 'invalid and unlawful.' The ruling is seen as a fatal legal blow to her Olympic aspirations.
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Similar markets
Appeal successful, ban reinstated • 33%
Appeal fails, ban remains overturned • 33%
Case dismissed, no conclusive ruling • 34%
Swimming • 25%
Track and Field • 25%
Cycling • 25%
Other • 25%
Multiple new challenges • 33%
Isolated cases • 33%
No new challenges • 34%
Ban upheld • 33%
Ban partially struck down • 34%
Ban entirely struck down • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Challenges successful • 33%
Challenges partially successful • 33%
Challenges unsuccessful • 34%
Upheld • 33%
Modified • 33%
Overturned • 33%