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What will be the outcome of the judicial reform vote in the full Senate by October 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Pass with 80-89 votes • 25%
Pass with 90-99 votes • 25%
Pass with 100 or more votes • 25%
Fail • 25%
Official records and announcements from the Mexican Senate
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Mexico's Senate Approves Judicial Reform with 86 Votes Amid Protests
Sep 10, 2024, 09:20 PM
Mexico's Senate has approved the general text of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's judicial reform, which proposes electing judges by popular vote instead of appointment. The reform has been highly controversial, facing strong opposition from various political factions, business elites, and international critics who argue it threatens judicial independence and could harm Mexico's business climate. The ruling coalition secured the necessary votes, including a pivotal vote from opposition Senator Miguel Ángel Yunes, to pass the reform with 86 votes in favor and 41 against. Protests erupted, with demonstrators storming the Senate building, forcing a temporary recess. The reform now moves to the full Senate for final approval.
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Reform Passed • 25%
Reform Blocked • 25%
Vote Delayed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Passes with simple majority • 25%
Passes with qualified majority • 25%
Fails to pass • 25%
Vote postponed beyond 2024 • 25%
Approved • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Delayed • 25%
Amended • 25%
Becomes law • 33%
Vetoed by Biden • 33%
Fails to pass • 34%
Becomes law without veto • 25%
Becomes law after veto override • 25%
Vetoed and not overridden • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
All proposals passed • 25%
Only term limits passed • 25%
Only code of conduct passed • 25%
None passed • 25%
Legislation Passed • 25%
Legislation Proposed but Not Passed • 25%
No Legislative Action • 25%
Other Reform Measures • 25%
Legislation passed • 25%
Internal reforms by Supreme Court • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
All nominees confirmed • 25%
Only appellate nominees confirmed • 25%
Only district court nominees confirmed • 25%
None confirmed • 25%
Positive • 25%
Negative • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Approve reform as is • 25%
Demand changes to reform • 25%
Reject reform entirely • 25%
No decision by end of 2024 • 25%
Becomes law without veto • 25%
Becomes law after veto override • 25%
Vetoed and not overridden • 25%
Withdrawn or modified • 25%
Term limits established • 25%
Ethics code implemented • 25%
Both reforms implemented • 25%
Neither reform implemented • 25%