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What will be the main outcome of the 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah by October 17, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds and leads to negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire holds but no significant progress in negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down, hostilities resume • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the US, France, Israel, or Hezbollah; UN Security Council statements; reputable news sources such as Reuters or BBC
Story
US and France Call for Immediate 21-Day Ceasefire Between Israel and Hezbollah
Sep 26, 2024, 02:30 AM
The United States and France, along with several allies, have jointly proposed an immediate 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The proposal, announced by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot at a UN Security Council meeting, aims to halt hostilities and allow for diplomatic negotiations. The conflict has resulted in over 600 deaths in Lebanon due to Israeli airstrikes. Senior US officials indicate that the ceasefire deal is expected to be implemented in the coming hours.
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Accepted and implemented • 25%
Accepted but not implemented • 25%
Rejected by Israel • 25%
Rejected by Hezbollah • 25%
Accepted by both parties • 33%
Rejected by both parties • 33%
Accepted by one party • 33%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Minor skirmishes occur • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
Formal peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreed but not implemented • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations extended • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
No official response • 25%
Ceasefire discussions ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire approved and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire approved but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire not approved • 25%
Ceasefire delayed beyond 2024 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire breakdown • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Agreement finalized and implemented • 25%
Agreement finalized but not implemented • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire partially implemented • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire broken before completion • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%