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What will be the outcome of the EU's political engagement with Syria by the end of 2025?
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German•Annalena Baerbock•Damascus•Syria•EU•Baerbock•Sednaya•Syrian Civil Defense•Germany•Barrot•Kurdish•Europe
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful political transition • 25%
Stalemate with no significant progress • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official EU and Syrian government announcements, international news reports
Story
German and French Ministers Meet New Syrian Leader in Historic Damascus Visit
Jan 3, 2025, 09:18 AM
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock arrived in Damascus on Friday for high-level talks with Syria's new leadership on behalf of the EU, marking the first visit by EU top diplomats since the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Upon arrival, Baerbock wore a bulletproof vest, underscoring security concerns. The ministers visited the notorious Sednaya prison with Syrian Civil Defense, which Baerbock described as a 'hell prison', an emblem of abuses under the deposed leader. Both ministers expressed support for a peaceful and inclusive political transition in Syria, offering technical and legal assistance in drafting a new constitution. Baerbock stated that Germany extends its hand to Syria but has expectations, emphasizing the need for a democratic transition. Barrot urged Kurdish groups to disarm and integrate into political life, stating that terrorism in Syria would not be tolerated. They met with Syria's new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and emphasized the importance of respecting agreed principles and protecting civilians and minorities. Their visit signals a possible new political relationship between Europe and Syria.
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Successful re-engagement • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Mission failure • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Increase in sanctions • 25%
Partial easing of sanctions • 25%
Full lifting of sanctions • 25%
No change in sanctions • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Impose new sanctions • 25%
Provide economic aid • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Establish diplomatic relations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Assad regime retains control • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Constitutional reforms • 25%
No major changes • 25%
Increased deportations • 25%
Continued suspension • 25%
Resumption of asylum applications • 25%
Other • 25%
Assad regime remains in power • 25%
New government established • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%