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Market
What will be the outcome of the diplomatic engagement over CCG-5901 at Sabina Shoal by October 31, 2024?
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China•South China Sea•Philippines•Philippine Coast Guard•Manila•Philippine•Teresa Magbanua•Sabina Shoal•Chinese•Ayungin Shoal•Escoda Shoal
Resolution / Starting Odds
China agrees to withdraw the vessel • 25%
Philippines agrees to Chinese presence • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official statements from the governments of China and the Philippines, or reports from major news outlets
Story
China Anchors Largest Coast Guard Vessel at Sabina Shoal in Philippine Waters
Jul 7, 2024, 10:28 PM
China's largest coast guard vessel, the 165-meter CCG-5901, has anchored in the South China Sea within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The Philippine Coast Guard reported that the vessel entered Manila's 200-nautical mile EEZ on July 2 and anchored 800 yards from a Philippine vessel, Teresa Magbanua, at the disputed Sabina Shoal. The presence of the Chinese vessel is seen as an attempt to intimidate the Philippines. China claims sovereignty over these waters and asserts that the vessel is conducting maritime law enforcement. Additionally, the Armed Forces of the Philippines reported the sighting of several Chinese ships near Ayungin Shoal and the CCG-5901 has been anchored at Escoda Shoal since July 3.
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Similar markets
Philippines gains control • 25%
China gains control • 25%
Ongoing standoff • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Chinese ship withdraws • 25%
Philippine ship withdraws • 25%
Both ships remain • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
U.N. resolution against China • 25%
ASEAN joint statement • 25%
Bilateral agreements between China and the Philippines • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Resolution through negotiations • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Philippines removes vessel • 25%
Philippines maintains vessel • 25%
Joint management agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal apology from Japan • 25%
Formal protest from China • 25%
Both apology and protest • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Formal protest lodged with international bodies • 25%
Increased naval patrols in the area • 25%
Engagement in diplomatic talks with China • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest by Philippines • 25%
New maritime restrictions by China • 25%
Third-party diplomatic intervention • 25%
No significant actions taken • 25%
China found at fault • 25%
Philippines found at fault • 25%
Both found at fault • 25%
No fault determined • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%