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What will be the outcome of the deployment of Russia's 'Frigate' battalion in Ukraine by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful deployment with significant impact • 25%
Deployed with minimal impact • 25%
Deployed but withdrawn • 25%
Never deployed • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian Ministry of Defense or credible news sources like Reuters, BBC, or Forbes
Story
Russia Forms 'Frigate' Battalion from Admiral Kuznetsov Crew for Ukraine Frontline
Sep 23, 2024, 10:09 AM
Russia has formed a mechanized battalion, referred to as a 'Frigate' battalion, from the crew of its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, and reassigned them to the frontlines in Ukraine. The Admiral Kuznetsov has been inactive and undergoing repairs since 2018, and it is increasingly unlikely that it will ever deploy again. This move is seen as a response to a shortage of skilled troops in the Russian army. According to Forbes military analyst David Axe, the aircraft carrier has not been on active duty for eight years.
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Military victory for Russia • 25%
Military victory for Ukraine • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Significant Territorial Gain • 25%
Withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Territorial losses • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Full-scale re-invasion of Ukraine • 25%
Defensive stance within Russia • 25%
Partial re-deployment to Ukraine • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Russia achieves all goals • 25%
Ukraine regains some territories • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine maintains control of the incursion areas • 25%
Russia regains control of the incursion areas • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Successfully repels Ukrainian forces • 25%
Fails to repel Ukrainian forces • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Russia withdraws • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Ukraine regains territory • 25%
Russia gains territory • 25%
Ukraine captures territory • 25%
Significant Russian casualties • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Troops remain without conflict • 25%
Troops withdraw without conflict • 25%
Troops engage in conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Russia gains significant ground • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Ukraine regains territory • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia escalates military actions • 25%
Russia maintains current level of engagement • 25%
Russia deescalates military actions • 25%
Peace negotiations commence • 25%