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What will be the outcome of the current Hezbollah-Israel conflict by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale War • 25%
International Mediation • 25%
Verified news reports from credible sources such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Hezbollah's 'Redwan' Force Ambushes Israeli Soldiers Near Metula; Up to 20 IDF Casualties
Oct 2, 2024, 06:46 AM
Israeli soldiers attempting to infiltrate southern Lebanon from the town of Metula were ambushed by Hezbollah fighters from the 'Redwan' Force, Hezbollah's special operations unit. The incident, reported by Israeli media, resulted in injuries among the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), with reports indicating that up to 20 soldiers were killed or wounded. IDF helicopters were seen airlifting casualties from the area near the border with Lebanon, including four helicopters evacuating wounded over Qalqilya since the morning. The rescue operation faced difficulties due to heavy artillery shelling by Hezbollah. The clash occurred near the towns of Adaisseh and Kfarkela, following an exchange of fire and shelling between the IDF and Hezbollah near the border. Hezbollah announced they repelled the infantry attack.
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Continued Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
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IDF Victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
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Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
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Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
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Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
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Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
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Full-Scale War • 25%
Other • 25%
No conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into full-scale war • 25%
Status quo with intermittent skirmishes • 25%
Hezbollah disarmed by international intervention • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation into Full-Scale War • 25%
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Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation to Full-Scale War • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Other • 25%