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What will be the outcome of the current clashes between Israel and Hezbollah by Dec 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Continued clashes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government, Hezbollah, and major news outlets
Story
Sky News Arabia: 14 Israeli Soldiers Killed in Hezbollah Ambush in Southern Lebanon
Oct 2, 2024, 12:15 PM
Israeli soldiers have reportedly been killed and injured in clashes with Hezbollah forces near the towns of Adaisseh and Maroun Al-Ras in southern Lebanon. Initial reports indicate that an ambush by Hezbollah resulted in the deaths of at least four Israeli soldiers and wounded up to 20 others as they attempted to enter Lebanon. Subsequent reports suggest that the number of Israeli soldiers killed has risen to 14, with up to 60 injured, according to Israeli sources cited by Sky News Arabia. Helicopters, including eight that arrived at hospitals in Haifa, have been seen evacuating casualties. The Israeli military is conducting ground operations in the area, and clashes have been ongoing since this morning.
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes without agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict with no major change • 25%
Escalation into a larger regional conflict • 25%
International intervention leading to peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Israel Victory • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Return to status quo • 25%
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Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation into Full-Scale War • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
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Continued hostilities • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel launches ground invasion • 25%
Hezbollah launches major counteroffensive • 25%
Both sides agree to ceasefire • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Hezbollah retreat • 25%
Israel retreat • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into full-scale war • 25%
Status quo with intermittent skirmishes • 25%
Hezbollah disarmed by international intervention • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
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Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
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Limited skirmishes • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Israeli Victory • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hezbollah retreat • 25%
Israeli withdrawal • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%