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What will be the outcome of the current Israel-Hezbollah tensions by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full-blown war • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Major news outlets like NBC, CNN, or official statements from the Israeli or Hezbollah military
Story
US Deploys Troops to Cyprus Amid Rising Israel-Hezbollah Tensions: NBC, CNN
Sep 25, 2024, 03:51 PM
The United States has deployed dozens of troops to Cyprus amid escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, according to NBC and CNN. The deployment is in preparation for a range of contingencies, including the possible evacuation of American citizens from Lebanon should a full-blown war erupt. This move comes as fears of a wider Middle East conflict intensify.
View original story
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Full-scale war • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Other • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Continued skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into full conflict • 25%
Continued sporadic skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations without resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict with no major change • 25%
Escalation into a larger regional conflict • 25%
International intervention leading to peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Israel Victory • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes without agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel launches ground invasion • 25%
Hezbollah launches major counteroffensive • 25%
Both sides agree to ceasefire • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Hezbollah retreat • 25%
Israel retreat • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into full-scale war • 25%
Status quo with intermittent skirmishes • 25%
Hezbollah disarmed by international intervention • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Return to status quo • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation into Full-Scale War • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation to Full-Scale War • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%