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What will be the outcome of the Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor bid for U.S. Steel by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Cleveland-Cliffs acquires U.S. Steel • 25%
Nucor acquires Big River Steel • 25%
Bid is blocked by CFIUS • 25%
Deal falls through for other reasons • 25%
Official announcements from Cleveland-Cliffs, U.S. Steel, and major financial news outlets
Story
Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor Partner on All-Cash Bid for U.S. Steel in High $30s per Share After Biden Blocks Nippon
Jan 13, 2025, 02:54 PM
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and Nucor Corp. are reportedly partnering on a potential bid for United States Steel Corp., according to sources cited by CNBC. The proposed deal involves Cleveland-Cliffs purchasing all of U.S. Steel for an all-cash offer in the high $30s per share, after which it would sell the Big River Steel subsidiary to Nucor. This development comes after the White House blocked a previous takeover attempt of U.S. Steel by Japan's Nippon Steel earlier this month, citing national security concerns following a review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). U.S. Steel shares, which closed at $34.24 per share on Friday, jumped 7% following the news of the potential bid. President Joe Biden blocked Nippon's more than $14 billion bid to acquire U.S. Steel. The headquarters of U.S. Steel would remain in Pittsburgh if the deal goes through.
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Bid accepted and acquisition completed • 25%
Bid modified and accepted • 25%
No final decision by end of 2025 • 25%
Bid rejected • 25%
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Bid modified • 25%
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Bid accepted • 25%
Deal Blocked by CFIUS • 25%
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Deal Withdrawn by Nippon Steel • 25%
$40 to $45 • 25%
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$35 to $40 • 25%
Above $45 • 25%
Approved without conditions • 25%
Withdrawn by Nippon Steel • 25%
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Approved with conditions • 25%
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Approved with conditions • 25%
Postponed • 25%
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Below $35 • 25%
$35 to $39 • 25%
$40 to $44 • 25%
Above $44 • 25%