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What will be the outcome of the Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor bid for U.S. Steel by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Bid accepted and acquisition completed • 25%
Bid rejected • 25%
Bid modified and accepted • 25%
No final decision by end of 2025 • 25%
Official press releases from Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, or U.S. Steel; major financial news outlets
Story
Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor Eye Joint All-Cash Bid for U.S. Steel at High $30s Per Share
Jan 13, 2025, 03:26 PM
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and Nucor Corp. are reportedly in discussions to jointly bid for United States Steel Corp., according to sources cited by CNBC. The potential bid is said to be an all-cash offer in the high $30s per share, significantly lower than the $54 per share previously offered by Japan's Nippon Steel. The plan involves Cleveland-Cliffs acquiring U.S. Steel and subsequently selling its Big River Steel subsidiary to Nucor. U.S. Steel's headquarters would remain in Pittsburgh. This development comes after the White House blocked Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel earlier this month, citing national security concerns. U.S. Steel shares rose approximately 7% to around $37 following the report of the potential bid.
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Deal falls through for other reasons • 25%
Bid is blocked by CFIUS • 25%
Nucor acquires Big River Steel • 25%
Cleveland-Cliffs acquires U.S. Steel • 25%
Successful acquisition • 25%
Bid withdrawn • 25%
Bid rejected • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Bid modified • 25%
No decision by deadline • 25%
Bid rejected • 25%
Bid accepted • 25%
Deal Blocked by CFIUS • 25%
Deal Blocked by Biden • 25%
Deal Withdrawn by Nippon Steel • 25%
Deal Approved • 25%
Withdrawn by Nippon Steel • 25%
Blocked • 25%
Approved with conditions • 25%
Approved without conditions • 25%
Less than $35 per share • 25%
$35 to $37 per share • 25%
$37 to $39 per share • 25%
More than $39 per share • 25%
Approved without conditions • 25%
Postponed • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Approved with conditions • 25%
Blocked by U.S. government • 25%
Deal withdrawn by Nippon Steel • 25%
Approved • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Above $44 • 25%
Below $35 • 25%
$35 to $39 • 25%
$40 to $44 • 25%