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What will be the outcome of Syria's transitional government by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Stable government formed • 25%
Ongoing political instability • 25%
Return of Assad's regime • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official announcements from the Syrian government
Story
U.S. Eases Syria Sanctions for Six Months, Allowing Energy and Remittance Transactions
Jan 6, 2025, 07:02 PM
The U.S. Treasury Department has issued a six-month general license easing some sanctions on Syria to facilitate the provision of essential services and humanitarian aid following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. The license authorizes transactions related to the sale, supply, storage, or donation of energy, including petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, as well as non-commercial personal remittances to Syria. This move aims to support the Syrian people during a transitional period, with the U.S. government continuing to monitor the situation. However, the license does not allow for any financial transfers to blocked persons under existing sanctions programs, including Assad and his associates, the Syrian Central Bank, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
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Interim government with international oversight • 25%
Military junta takes control • 25%
Democratic government established • 25%
Continued civil unrest with no clear leadership • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Assad regime retains control • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
International intervention • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
Non-sectarian government established • 25%
New sectarian government formed • 25%
New leader emerges • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Interim government formed • 25%
Bashar al-Assad remains • 25%
Government led by opposition forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Government led by former regime members • 25%
Inclusive government with opposition • 25%
Continued Conflict and Instability • 25%
Successful Transition to Transitional Government • 25%
Return to Previous Government Structure • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
National unity government formed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Pro-Iranian government • 25%
Pro-Russian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Pro-Western government • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New interim government established • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Military coup • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Government loses control • 25%
Government retains partial control • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Government control unchanged • 25%