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How many astronauts will be on board the first crewed SpaceX mission to Mars in 2028?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
1-2 astronauts • 25%
3-4 astronauts • 25%
5-6 astronauts • 25%
7 or more astronauts • 25%
Official announcements from SpaceX, NASA, or other credible space agencies
Story
Elon Musk Announces SpaceX Mars Missions Starting 2026, Crewed Flights in 2028
Sep 7, 2024, 11:57 PM
Elon Musk has announced that SpaceX plans to launch its first uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years, coinciding with the next Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026. These initial missions aim to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If successful, the first crewed flights to Mars are scheduled to follow in 2028. Musk's long-term vision includes establishing a self-sustaining city on Mars within approximately 20 years.
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Successful launch and landing • 25%
Successful launch, failed landing • 25%
Failed launch • 25%
Mission delayed • 25%
Before 2028 • 25%
In 2028 • 25%
After 2028 • 25%
Not at all • 25%
Gale Crater • 25%
Olympus Mons • 25%
Valles Marineris • 25%
Other • 25%
Scientific research • 25%
Establishing a base • 25%
Resource extraction • 25%
Other • 25%
0 • 25%
1 • 25%
2 • 25%
3 or more • 25%
