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What will be the outcome of Somalia's call for international support by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
UN intervention • 25%
AU intervention • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Other intervention • 25%
Official statements from international bodies or news reports
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Somalia Accuses Ethiopia of Supplying Two Lorries of Weapons to Puntland
Sep 23, 2024, 06:40 AM
Somalia has accused Ethiopia of supplying two lorries of weapons to the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, stating that these unauthorized arms shipments violate Somalia's sovereignty and pose a threat to regional stability. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud emphasized the government's zero-tolerance policy on arms trading, reinforcing that all imports, exports, and sales of weapons are strictly prohibited, with violators facing legal repercussions. The Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs has called for an immediate end to these shipments and urged international support for peace in the Horn of Africa. There has been no immediate response from Ethiopia.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Turkey successfully mediates • 25%
Another country successfully mediates • 25%
No successful mediation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full assistance provided • 25%
Partial assistance provided • 25%
No assistance provided • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal peace agreement signed • 25%
Economic cooperation established • 25%
Military cooperation established • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Ethiopia denies allegations • 25%
Ethiopia admits to shipments • 25%
No official response from Ethiopia • 25%
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Successful agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
UN sanctions on Israel • 25%
US military aid to Israel • 25%
EU diplomatic intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased international military support for Somali forces • 25%
Increased international diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant change in international involvement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
United Nations • 25%
African Union • 25%
European Union • 25%
No major involvement • 25%
Security issues • 25%
Political resistance • 25%
Funding shortages • 25%
Logistical challenges • 25%