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What will be the outcome of Russian special forces' involvement in the Volgograd hostage crisis?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Special forces successfully resolve the situation • 25%
Special forces fail to resolve the situation • 25%
Special forces partially resolve the situation • 25%
Special forces not involved • 25%
Official statements from Russian authorities, credible news sources
Story
ISIS-Linked Hostage Crisis in Volgograd Prison: Guards Killed, $2 Million Demanded
Aug 23, 2024, 10:43 AM
A hostage situation has erupted at the IK-19 penal colony in Surovikino, Volgograd Oblast, Russia. Prisoners, reportedly linked to ISIS, have taken control of the facility, resulting in the deaths of at least three prison guards and leaving several others wounded. The incident began during a disciplinary meeting, where the inmates seized several Federal Penitentiary Service officers as hostages. The prisoners are demanding $2 million and a helicopter. The head of the colony managed to escape and is in intensive care. Russian special forces have been deployed to the scene to manage the situation. FSB involvement has been noted, and graphic footage of the incident is available online.
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Hostages freed safely • 25%
Hostages harmed or killed • 25%
Attackers neutralized • 25%
Ongoing standoff • 25%
Negotiation succeeds • 25%
Special forces storm the facility • 25%
Ransom is paid • 25%
Hostage takers escape • 25%
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Increased security in affected areas • 25%
Significant reduction in Ukrainian attacks • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful completion • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
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Complete success • 25%
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Operation failure • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
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Russia agrees to assist • 25%
Russia declines to assist • 25%
No official response from Russia • 25%
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Significant operational changes • 25%
Minor operational changes • 25%
No operational changes • 25%
University closure • 25%
Full retake of Kursk • 25%
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Status quo remains • 25%
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Rescued • 25%
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Killed or captured • 25%
Still trapped • 25%