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What will be the outcome of protests against the war in Gaza by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests lead to significant policy change • 25%
Protests continue with no significant policy change • 25%
Protests decline significantly • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major news outlets and official statements
Story
Netanyahu Vows 'Total Victory' Over Hamas in Speech to Congress
Jul 24, 2024, 08:15 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed in a speech to Congress to continue the war in Gaza until achieving 'total victory' over Hamas. Netanyahu stated that the war could end if Hamas returns all hostages but emphasized that Israel would fight until Hamas's military capacities and rule in Gaza are destroyed. He expressed his vision for a demilitarized and deradicalized Gaza post-conflict. His speech disappointed those hoping for a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations and hostage release. Netanyahu also condemned American opponents of the war. Many Democratic lawmakers boycotted his address, and thousands protested, seeking an end to the war.
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Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Increased international sanctions • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Policy change • 25%
Government resignation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Hamas victory • 25%
Israeli victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
IDF victory • 25%
Hamas retains control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Cease-fire agreed • 25%
Partial cease-fire • 25%
No cease-fire • 25%
Other • 25%
Hamas leadership eliminated • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Prisoner exchange deal secured • 25%
Ceasefire announced • 25%
Both prisoner exchange deal and ceasefire • 25%
Neither • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Conflict ends, ceasefire holds • 25%
Conflict ends, ceasefire does not hold • 25%
Conflict continues, ceasefire holds • 25%
Conflict continues, ceasefire does not hold • 25%
Continued airstrikes with increasing casualties • 25%
Decreased airstrikes with fewer casualties • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful • 33%
Unsuccessful • 33%
Ongoing • 34%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased arms shipments • 25%
Hostage deal • 25%
No significant change • 25%