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What will be the outcome of potential military escalation between Iran and Israel by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Analysis from international relations experts and reports from major news agencies
Story
Biden Administration Warns Iran: Unable to Restrain Israel If Attacked, U.S. Official Says
Nov 2, 2024, 07:07 PM
The United States has issued a stern warning to Iran regarding potential attacks on Israel, stating that it would be unable to restrain Israeli responses. This warning comes from the Biden administration, which conveyed the message through Swiss intermediaries. A U.S. official emphasized that if Iran were to launch another attack, the U.S. would not be able to ensure that Israel's response would be measured or targeted as in previous instances. The warning reflects heightened tensions in the region and underscores the U.S. commitment to its ally, Israel, amid ongoing hostilities.
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Full-scale conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant escalation • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other regional involvement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Mediation by third party • 25%
Resolution through UN intervention • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
No conflict occurs • 25%
Iran Victory • 25%
Israel Victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No further conflict escalation • 25%
Successful strike with minimal fallout • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Full-scale war • 25%
Increased skirmishes • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued military engagements • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Major conflict escalation • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Limited military engagements • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%