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What level of uranium enrichment will Iran achieve by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Up to 5% • 25%
Between 5% and 20% • 25%
20% to 60% • 25%
Above 60% • 25%
Up to 60% • 25%
60% to 90% • 25%
90% or more • 25%
No increase • 25%
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports
Story
Iran's Uranium Enrichment Capacity Surges Amid U.S. Intelligence Warning
Dec 6, 2024, 03:04 PM
Iran has significantly ramped up its uranium enrichment activities, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reporting a dramatic increase in the production of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% needed for weapons-grade material. Rafael Grossi, the IAEA's director-general, stated that Iran's enrichment capacity could increase by seven to eight times or even more from the previous rate of 5-7 kg per month. This escalation comes in response to diplomatic and military pressures, including attacks and sanctions, as well as an intelligence assessment from the U.S. suggesting Iran could produce enough material for 12 nuclear bombs if it further enriches its current uranium stockpiles. Iran has also begun feeding uranium enriched to up to 20% into two interconnected cascades at Fordow, aiming to raise its purity to 60%.
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60% or less • 25%
61% to 70% • 25%
71% to 90% • 25%
Above 90% • 25%
60% • 25%
80% • 25%
90% • 25%
Above 90% • 25%
Less than 20% • 25%
Between 20% and 60% • 25%
Between 60% and 90% • 25%
90% or more • 25%
Up to 20% • 33%
Between 20% and 60% • 33%
Above 60% • 33%
Below 20% • 25%
20%-50% • 25%
50%-90% • 25%
Above 90% • 25%
Below 185 kg at 60% purity • 25%
Between 185 kg and 200 kg at 60% purity • 25%
Above 200 kg at 60% purity • 25%
No data available • 25%
Up to 5% • 25%
5% to 20% • 25%
Above 20% • 25%
Other • 25%
Up to 5% purity • 25%
5% to 10% purity • 25%
10% to 20% purity • 25%
Above 20% purity • 25%
Remains below 60% • 25%
Reaches 60% • 25%
Exceeds 60% but below weapons-grade • 25%
Reaches weapons-grade • 25%
Iran stops enrichment • 25%
Iran continues current level • 25%
Iran increases enrichment • 25%
Iran decreases enrichment • 25%