Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of Pakistan's request for nuclear second-strike capability from China by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
China agrees to provide capability • 25%
China refuses the request • 25%
Negotiations are ongoing • 25%
Negotiations are suspended • 25%
Official statements from the governments involved or credible reports from international security organizations
Story
Pakistan Seeks Nuclear Second-Strike Capability from China for Gwadar Base Amid Deteriorating Ties
Dec 13, 2024, 03:35 AM
In recent developments, the Pakistani military has reportedly engaged in secret negotiations with China, seeking nuclear second-strike capability. In exchange, Pakistan is considering allowing China to establish a military base at the strategically significant Gwadar port. This request highlights the deteriorating ties between the two nations, which have historically been allies. The situation underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play as major global powers, including the United States, Russia, and China, navigate security dilemmas and arms control challenges. Analysts suggest that the modernization of China's nuclear arsenal and Russia's potential resumption of nuclear testing contribute to a heightened global security dilemma, raising concerns about a new arms race.
View original story
Similar markets
Successful long-range test • 25%
Continued development without test • 25%
Halted development • 25%
Shift to short-range focus • 25%
China deploys its own security personnel • 25%
Pakistan increases its security measures • 25%
Joint security task force established • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Military deterrence measures • 25%
Less than 800 warheads • 25%
800 to 1,000 warheads • 25%
More than 1,000 warheads • 25%
Official count not disclosed • 25%
UN Security Council resolution • 25%
Increased monitoring by IAEA • 25%
No action • 25%
Sanctions by international bodies • 25%
US increases military presence in Asia • 25%
New international treaty discussions • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic talks • 25%
Military alliances • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Tensions increase • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation of Pakistan • 25%
Support for Pakistan • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
No significant response • 25%
600-700 warheads • 25%
701-800 warheads • 25%
801-900 warheads • 25%
Over 900 warheads • 25%