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What will be the outcome of Iran-Jordan-Israel tensions by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Jordan allows Israeli use of airspace • 25%
Direct military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Public reports from governments involved or major news outlets
Story
Jordan Denies Airspace Use for Israel Amid Iran Tensions
Aug 11, 2024, 11:30 AM
Jordan has denied reports that it will permit Israel to use its airspace to counter potential Iranian attacks following the killing of a Hamas leader, citing its US alliance. Jordan's Foreign Minister has stated that the country will shoot down any unauthorized aircraft entering its airspace, emphasizing that Jordan will not become a battlefield for Iran or Israel. King Abdullah II also reiterated that Jordan will not allow the lives of its people to be endangered.
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De-escalation and talks • 25%
Continued military skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation and diplomatic talks • 25%
Continued military posturing • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Status quo with no significant change • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
New diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Limited skirmish • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No conflict • 25%
No escalation occurs • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel strikes Iran • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other regional involvement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Increased skirmishes • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Iran Victory • 25%
Israel Victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%