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What will be the outcome of Edmundo González Urrutia's return to Venezuela by March 31, 2025?
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Venezuelan•Edmundo González Urrutia•González Urrutia•Republic•CICPC•Nicolás Maduro•Spain•Argentina•Venezuela
Resolution / Starting Odds
Arrested • 25%
Inaugurated as President • 25%
Remains in hiding • 25%
Leaves Venezuela again • 25%
Official announcements from Venezuelan government or credible news outlets
Story
Venezuela Issues Arrest Warrant, Offers $100,000 Reward for Opposition Leader González Urrutia
Jan 2, 2025, 10:12 PM
The Venezuelan government has issued an arrest warrant and announced a $100,000 reward for information leading to the capture of opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia. The Attorney General's office accuses González Urrutia, 75, of conspiracy, usurpation of functions, money laundering, complicity in the use of violent acts against the Republic, disrespect to state institutions, and association to commit crimes. The country's investigative police, CICPC, have circulated his wanted poster at checkpoints, border posts, and airports. González Urrutia, who claims to have defeated President Nicolás Maduro in last year's presidential election, was granted political asylum in Spain on December 20 but is reportedly traveling to Argentina. He is slated to return to Venezuela in the coming days for his planned inauguration.
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Similar markets
Exiled again • 25%
Other • 25%
Returns safely • 25%
Arrested • 25%
Does not return • 25%
Returns but is arrested • 25%
Successfully returns and assumes presidency • 25%
Returns but faces other outcomes • 25%
Does not return • 25%
Successfully assumes presidency • 25%
Arrested upon return • 25%
Returns but not arrested or assumes presidency • 25%
Captured • 25%
Negotiates a settlement • 25%
Returns voluntarily • 25%
Remains in exile • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Returns and is detained • 25%
Returns but faces other outcomes • 25%
Returns and assumes presidency • 25%
Does not return • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
