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What will be the outcome of diplomatic talks between Canada and China by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful resolution • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Canadian and Chinese governments or credible news sources
Story
Canadian Warship HMCS Montreal Transits Taiwan Strait on July 31, Provoking Chinese Response
Aug 1, 2024, 02:21 AM
A Canadian warship, the HMCS Montreal, transited the Taiwan Strait on July 31, reinforcing Canada's commitment to the Indo-Pacific region. This move drew a strong reaction from China, with the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command organizing sea and air forces to monitor and guard the entire process. The PLA stated that the passage of the Canadian frigate undermined peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and responded to what it termed a provocation. The transit by the HMCS Montreal was publicly hyped by the Royal Canadian Navy.
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Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Further deterioration • 25%
Diplomatic breakdown • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs lifted by both sides • 25%
Escalation of tariffs • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
WTO involvement • 25%
Other • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
WTO ruling in favor of Canada • 25%
WTO ruling in favor of China • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
New tariffs agreed • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
All tensions resolved • 25%
Partial resolutions • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full restoration of diplomatic relations • 25%
Partial restoration with conditions • 25%
Continued diplomatic tensions • 25%
Escalation to economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased diplomatic sanctions • 25%
Continued status quo • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic tensions increase • 25%
Severance of diplomatic ties • 25%