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What will be the outcome of diplomatic efforts regarding Turkish operations in northern Iraq by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued operations • 25%
Increased international tension • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international diplomatic meetings or official statements
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Turkey Neutralizes 11 PKK Terrorists in Zap Region Air Operation, Says National Defense Ministry
Dec 20, 2024, 08:34 AM
The Turkish National Defense Ministry announced that 11 members of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) were neutralized during an air operation in northern Iraq. The operation, which took place in the Zap region, was part of ongoing military efforts by the Turkish Armed Forces to combat terrorism. The ministry emphasized that operations will continue without interruption. This action follows a broader strategy by Turkey to target PKK militants in northern Iraq, where the group has been active.
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Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Complete elimination • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Increased PKK activity • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Continued sporadic operations • 25%
Formal peace agreement • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Calls for diplomatic resolution • 25%
Support for Turkey's actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete PKK defeat • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
PKK gains ground • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic pressure but no sanctions • 25%
Support for Turkey's actions • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%