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What will be the outcome of coalition talks by June 30, 2024?
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South Africa•African National Congress•ANC•Cyril Ramaphosa•Jacob Zuma•MK•Democratic Alliance•DA•Economic Freedom Fighters•EFF
Resolution / Starting Odds
ANC-led coalition • 33%
Non-ANC coalition • 33%
No coalition formed • 33%
Official announcement from South African government or major news outlets
Story
South Africa's ANC Loses Majority for First Time in 30 Years, Faces Coalition Talks
Jun 1, 2024, 12:07 PM
South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) is set to lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid, based on partial election results. With over 99% of votes counted, the ANC has secured approximately 40.2% of the vote, a significant drop from the 57.5% it achieved in the 2019 elections. This historic loss means the ANC will need to form a coalition government to maintain power. President Cyril Ramaphosa's ANC will enter intense coalition talks with other parties. Former President Jacob Zuma's MK party has emerged as a significant player, securing around 14.8% of the vote, while the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) garnered 21.7% and 9.5%, respectively.
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Similar markets
ANC and DA • 33%
ANC and EFF • 33%
ANC and other parties • 34%
Democratic Alliance (DA) • 33%
Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) • 33%
Other • 34%
Forms coalition with EFF • 25%
Forms coalition with DA • 25%
Forms coalition with other parties • 25%
No coalition formed • 25%
Ruling party retains majority • 33%
Opposition alliance gains majority • 33%
No clear majority • 33%
