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What will be the outcome of calls within Israel to end military engagements by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Engagements ended • 25%
Engagements reduced • 25%
Engagements unchanged • 25%
Engagements increased • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government or credible news reports
Story
US and Israel Reach Understanding on Iran's Oil and Nuclear Sites, Offering Compensation Package to Netanyahu Before Elections
Oct 22, 2024, 03:21 PM
Recent reports indicate that the United States and Israel have reached a quiet understanding regarding Iran. Security sources from both nations revealed that this agreement involves the U.S. promising to reward Israel for refraining from attacking Iran's oil and nuclear infrastructure. This arrangement aims to mitigate the risk of an all-out war prior to the upcoming elections. High-level sources have confirmed that the U.S. has agreed to a new compensation package for Israel, which includes defense incentives for Prime Minister Netanyahu. However, there are ongoing calls within Israel to end military engagements, which have reportedly been vetoed by the far-right faction of the ruling coalition.
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Successful • 33%
Unsuccessful • 33%
Ongoing • 34%
Increased regional stability • 25%
Increased regional instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel announces changes to IDF rules of engagement • 25%
Israel refuses to change IDF rules of engagement • 25%
Israel announces an internal review without changes • 25%
No official response from Israel • 25%
Ground invasion of Lebanon • 25%
Airstrikes only • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement not reached • 25%
Partial agreement with conditions • 25%
Talks break down completely • 25%
Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Continued conflict with no resolution • 25%
Hostage deal without ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other • 25%