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Market
What will be the outcome of a new OPCW investigation into the 2018 Douma attack by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Confirms chemical weapon use • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Denies chemical weapon use • 25%
No new investigation • 25%
Final report or findings published by the OPCW
Story
Two Syrian Doctors and a Nurse Coerced Into False Testimony on 2018 Douma Chlorine Attack by Bashar al-Assad
Dec 23, 2024, 05:57 PM
Two Syrian doctors and a nurse have reported that they were coerced by the government of President Bashar al-Assad to provide false testimony regarding a deadly chlorine attack in Douma in 2018. The medical professionals stated that they faced pressure to deny the use of chemical weapons during investigations by international authorities. This revelation comes after a chlorine attack in Douma that resulted in numerous casualties, which has been previously confirmed by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) as a chemical assault. The medics' accounts highlight ongoing concerns about the Syrian regime's actions and the treatment of witnesses in such investigations.
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Natural illness • 25%
Inconclusive/No finding • 25%
Confirmed assassination attempt • 25%
Accidental poisoning • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Strong support • 25%
Moderate support • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Opposition • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
Partial elimination • 25%
No progress • 25%
Increased stockpiles • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Sanctions by Western countries • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Internal Russian entity • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
Foreign government • 25%
Russian government • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Syrian opposition • 25%
No responsible party identified • 25%
Perpetrators apprehended • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Case closed without resolution • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Weapons remain unsecured • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Weapons secured • 25%
Investigation blocked • 25%
No hidden cells found • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Hidden cells confirmed • 25%
No findings released • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Fabrication not confirmed • 25%
Fabrication confirmed • 25%