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What will be the outcome of a new investigation into Trump's post-2020 actions by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No new investigation • 25%
Investigation initiated • 25%
Investigation concluded with charges • 25%
Investigation concluded with no charges • 25%
Official investigation announcements or results reported by major news outlets
Story
Jack Smith Report: Sufficient Evidence to Convict Trump Over 2020 Election, But Justice Department Policy Halts Prosecution
Jan 14, 2025, 09:20 AM
Special Counsel Jack Smith has released a report asserting that former President Donald Trump would have been convicted for his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results had he not been re-elected in 2024. The report, released just days before Trump's inauguration, states that the admissible evidence was sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial, but Trump's election victory and imminent return to the presidency led to the case being dropped due to Justice Department policy against prosecuting a sitting president. Smith's investigation focused on Trump's actions following the 2020 election, which he claims were underpinned by deceit and knowingly false claims of election fraud used as a weapon to defeat a federal government function. Trump responded to the report on his social media platform, Truth Social, labeling Smith as a 'lamebrain prosecutor' and asserting his innocence.
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Investigation with no charges • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
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Members fined • 25%
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Pardon • 25%
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Bolsonaro found not guilty • 25%
Appeal not resolved by end of 2025 • 25%
Conviction overturned • 25%
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No wrongdoing found • 25%
FBI and DoJ found obstructing • 25%
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Impeachment passed by House and convicted by Senate • 25%
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Impeachment passed by House, not convicted by Senate • 25%
FBI criticized with recommendations • 25%
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FBI criticized but no action • 25%
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