Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of the 2022 coup investigation by December 31, 2025?
3
Brazilian Supreme Federal Court•STF•Jair Bolsonaro•Alexandre de Moraes•Luís Roberto Barroso•Edson Fachin•Gilmar Mendes•Flávio Dino•Cristiano Zanin•Dias Toffoli•Bolsonaro•Moraes
Resolution / Starting Odds
Bolsonaro found guilty • 25%
Bolsonaro found not guilty • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official report or verdict from the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court or major news outlets
Story
Brazil's Supreme Court Rejects Bolsonaro's Bid to Remove Moraes in 6-0 Vote on Alleged 2022 Coup Inquiry
Dec 6, 2024, 06:14 PM
The Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) has formed a majority to reject former President Jair Bolsonaro's request to remove Minister Alexandre de Moraes from leading the investigation into the alleged attempted coup of 2022. The virtual session began on Friday, December 6, 2024, at 11 a.m. and will run until December 13. Ministers Luís Roberto Barroso, who had previously denied the request in February, Edson Fachin, Gilmar Mendes, Flávio Dino, Cristiano Zanin, and Dias Toffoli voted against Bolsonaro's appeal. Minister Alexandre de Moraes recused himself from voting. The defense argued that Moraes should be removed due to alleged partiality, citing that he is a victim in the investigation. The STF's majority decision allows Moraes to continue overseeing the inquiry into the supposed coup attempt.
View original story
Similar markets
Proceedings still ongoing • 25%
All acquitted • 25%
Some acquitted, some convicted • 25%
All convicted • 25%
Charges against Bolsonaro • 25%
Charges against other officials • 25%
Multiple charges including Bolsonaro • 25%
No charges filed • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Convictions secured • 25%
Further indictments • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Significant issues found • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Unclear/Other • 25%
No significant issues found • 25%
Decree found legal • 25%
Decree found unconstitutional • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
FBI and DoJ found obstructing • 25%
No wrongdoing found • 25%
Other findings • 25%
New leads on shooter's motive • 25%
Charges against President Yoon • 25%
No charges • 25%
Charges against both • 25%
Charges against military officials • 25%
No convictions • 25%
Convictions for all key officials • 25%
Convictions for some key officials • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
FBI criticized but no action • 25%
Formal action taken against FBI • 25%
FBI criticized with recommendations • 25%
FBI exonerated • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant findings • 25%
Policy changes recommended • 25%
Criminal charges recommended • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Cleared of all charges • 25%
Charged but acquitted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
