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Will the DOJ change its policy on prosecuting sitting presidents by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements or policy documents from the U.S. Department of Justice
Story
Jack Smith Report: Sufficient Evidence to Convict Trump Over 2020 Election, But Justice Department Policy Halts Prosecution
Jan 14, 2025, 09:20 AM
Special Counsel Jack Smith has released a report asserting that former President Donald Trump would have been convicted for his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results had he not been re-elected in 2024. The report, released just days before Trump's inauguration, states that the admissible evidence was sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial, but Trump's election victory and imminent return to the presidency led to the case being dropped due to Justice Department policy against prosecuting a sitting president. Smith's investigation focused on Trump's actions following the 2020 election, which he claims were underpinned by deceit and knowingly false claims of election fraud used as a weapon to defeat a federal government function. Trump responded to the report on his social media platform, Truth Social, labeling Smith as a 'lamebrain prosecutor' and asserting his innocence.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Policy revised to exclude DEI • 25%
Policy revised to include DEI • 25%
Pardon Trump • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other actions • 25%
New legal reforms introduced • 25%
Reprimand • 25%
Suspension • 25%
Termination • 25%
No action • 25%
Other • 25%
Cybersecurity Measures • 25%
Immigration Enforcement • 25%
Criminal Justice Reform • 25%
No major changes • 25%
New guidelines for media subpoenas • 25%
New guidelines for congressional subpoenas • 25%
Increased oversight measures • 25%