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What will be the next major U.S. diplomatic initiative involving Iran by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
New Peace Talks • 25%
New Sanctions Regime • 25%
Military Exercise • 25%
No Major Initiative • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. State Department or international diplomatic bodies
Story
Ex-Iran Envoy and Neoconservative Brian Hook to Head State Dept Transition for Trump
Nov 7, 2024, 12:10 PM
Brian Hook, a known neoconservative and former US Special Representative for Iran during President Trump's first term, is expected to lead the State Department's transition team for President-elect Donald Trump, according to CNN reports citing multiple sources. Hook previously served under both President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, working as Director of Policy Planning and playing a key role in the Abraham Accords. As the architect of the 'maximum pressure' sanctions campaign against Iran, Hook's appointment may signal a continuation of a hardline U.S. foreign policy toward Iran in the upcoming administration.
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Similar markets
Re-enter JCPOA • 25%
Impose new sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No action • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Sanctions lifted • 25%
Direct negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant diplomatic action • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful resolution • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation of threats • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Impose new sanctions • 25%
Engage in direct negotiations • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Resumption of talks • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Increased sanctions on Israel • 25%
Mediation for peace talks • 25%
Military support to Israel • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
No Change • 25%
Other Development • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant change • 25%