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What will be the level of progress in the Israel-Hamas negotiations by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant progress made • 25%
Moderate progress made • 25%
Little to no progress made • 25%
Negotiations break down • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or Hamas, verified by major news outlets like Reuters or BBC
Story
Israel Receives Constructive Hamas Response to Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal Proposal
Jul 3, 2024, 10:59 PM
Israel has received the latest response from Hamas on a proposed ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza. The response was delivered around noon local time, and mediators have been working to end almost nine months of fighting in the Gaza Strip. According to Israel's Mossad, the response is being studied, and a senior Israeli official described it as constructive, allowing for detailed negotiations on the remaining gaps. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed the receipt of Hamas' updated response, indicating potential progress in the ceasefire negotiations. A statement from Israel's Mossad noted that there is still a long way ahead, as reported by Reuters.
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Comprehensive ceasefire achieved • 25%
Partial ceasefire achieved • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement only • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostages released, no ceasefire • 25%
Hostages released, ceasefire agreed • 25%
No hostages released, ongoing conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Neither • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release agreement reached • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release agreements reached • 25%
No agreements reached • 25%
Body returned • 33%
Prisoner exchange • 33%
No resolution • 33%
Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage deal • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%