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Will detailed negotiations between Israel and Hamas conclude successfully by December 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Israeli government or Hamas, verified by major news outlets like Reuters or BBC
Story
Israel Receives Constructive Hamas Response to Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal Proposal
Jul 3, 2024, 10:59 PM
Israel has received the latest response from Hamas on a proposed ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza. The response was delivered around noon local time, and mediators have been working to end almost nine months of fighting in the Gaza Strip. According to Israel's Mossad, the response is being studied, and a senior Israeli official described it as constructive, allowing for detailed negotiations on the remaining gaps. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed the receipt of Hamas' updated response, indicating potential progress in the ceasefire negotiations. A statement from Israel's Mossad noted that there is still a long way ahead, as reported by Reuters.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Hostages released, no ceasefire • 25%
Hostages released, ceasefire agreed • 25%
No hostages released, ongoing conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Comprehensive ceasefire achieved • 25%
Partial ceasefire achieved • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement only • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Neither • 25%
Complete ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
