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What will be the impact on Gulf of Mexico oil production after May 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
No impact • 25%
Reduced production • 25%
Temporary shutdown • 25%
Permanent shutdown • 25%
Reports from major news outlets and industry analyses
Story
US Oil Industry Wins Court-Granted Delay Until May to Avert Gulf of Mexico Shutdown
Oct 21, 2024, 10:29 PM
The US oil industry has won a reprieve to avert a potential shutdown of production in the Gulf of Mexico. A federal judge granted the National Marine Fisheries Service more time to assess how endangered species should be protected in the area. This decision delays the expiration of agency regulations that were set to expire in December, now extended until May. Environmental groups have warned that this delay could lead to the extinction of a rare species of whale. The expiration of these regulations could have halted Gulf of Mexico production, potentially leading to hundreds of thousands of job losses and a monthly economic impact of $2.8 billion.
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Before June 2025 • 25%
June to August 2025 • 25%
September to November 2025 • 25%
No major disruption by end of 2025 • 25%
Less than 75% • 25%
75% to 89% • 25%
90% to 99% • 25%
100% • 25%
No significant disruption • 25%
Minor disruption (less than 5% production loss) • 25%
Moderate disruption (5-15% production loss) • 25%
Severe disruption (more than 15% production loss) • 25%
Increase • 25%
No Change • 25%
Decrease by less than 5% • 25%
Decrease by 5% or more • 25%
Oil prices increase by more than 10% • 25%
Oil prices increase by less than 10% • 25%
Oil prices remain stable • 25%
Oil prices decrease • 25%
Significant increase • 25%
Moderate increase • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase by more than 5% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease by up to 5% • 25%
Decrease by more than 5% • 25%
U.S. sanctions on Iran • 25%
OPEC production changes • 25%
Russian oil supply • 25%
Other factors • 25%
Increase by more than 200,000 bpd • 25%
Increase by less than 200,000 bpd • 25%
Decrease by less than 200,000 bpd • 25%
Decrease by more than 200,000 bpd • 25%
