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What will be the impact on China's military modernization due to the Type 041 Zhou submarine sinking by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant delays in submarine projects • 25%
Increased focus on other military technologies • 25%
No major impact • 25%
Other impacts • 25%
Credible news sources, military analysis reports
Story
China's Type 041 Zhou Nuclear Submarine Sinks Near Wuhan, U.S. Officials Confirm
Sep 26, 2024, 04:48 PM
China's newest nuclear-powered attack submarine, the first-of-its-kind Type 041 Zhou, sank in late May or early June at a shipyard near Wuhan. The incident, which has not been previously disclosed, represents a significant setback for China's military modernization efforts. U.S. officials confirmed the sinking, noting that Chinese authorities scrambled to cover up the episode. The submarine sank pierside into the Yangtze River. It remains unclear whether the submarine was carrying nuclear fuel at the time of the incident.
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Significant setback • 25%
Minor setback • 25%
No impact • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Public acknowledgment • 25%
Military parade or show of strength • 25%
Increased military secrecy • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Human error • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Successfully salvaged and repaired • 25%
Successfully salvaged but decommissioned • 25%
Not successfully salvaged • 25%
Other • 25%
Still underwater • 25%
Partially salvaged • 25%
Fully salvaged • 25%
Status unknown • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Launches investigation • 25%
Increases military spending • 25%
Replaces key military officials • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Human error • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%