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What will be China's response to the sinking of its nuclear submarine by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Launches investigation • 25%
Increases military spending • 25%
Replaces key military officials • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Official announcements from Chinese government or major news outlets
Story
China’s First-of-its-Kind Nuclear Submarine Sinks, WSJ Reports
Sep 26, 2024, 03:06 PM
China’s newest first-of-its-kind nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in the spring, marking a significant setback for one of the country’s priority weapons programs. The incident, which occurred at a shipyard near Wuhan in late May or early June, was covered up by Chinese authorities, according to U.S. officials. The episode has not been previously disclosed. The sinking of the submarine impedes China's military goals. The news was reported by WSJ.
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Public acknowledgment • 25%
Military parade or show of strength • 25%
Increased military secrecy • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased secrecy and cover-up • 25%
Public acknowledgment and investigation • 25%
Blaming external factors • 25%
No official response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
United States issues formal statement • 25%
Increased international scrutiny on China's military • 25%
No significant international reaction • 25%
Other reactions • 25%
Resignation of senior military official • 25%
Public apology • 25%
No action • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
United States • 25%
Japan • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
Russia • 25%
Japan • 25%
Other • 25%
New sanctions on Japan • 25%
Increased military presence near Taiwan • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest • 25%
No significant action • 25%