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What will be the impact of Buk-M1 systems on Syrian conflict dynamics by Jun 30, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased tensions • 25%
Military stalemate • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Analysis from defense experts or reports from international news agencies
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YPG/PKK Transfers 4 Buk-M1 Air Defense Systems to Turkish Border
Dec 10, 2024, 12:09 PM
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have captured several Buk-M1 air defense systems from the Syrian Arab Air Defence Force in Deir ez-Zor. These systems, previously belonging to the Assad regime, are being transferred to Deir ez-Zor by the YPG/PKK, a Kurdish-led group, to protect against potential threats from the Turkish Air Force. The transfer includes at least four 2K12 KUB air defense systems, complete with missiles, moving towards the Turkish border. There are calls for the U.S. and Israel to train SDF personnel in the use of these systems.
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Improvement • 25%
Significant degradation • 25%
Moderate degradation • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Rebuilt with foreign assistance • 25%
Replaced with new systems • 25%
Remain largely non-operational • 25%
Rebuilt independently • 25%
Increased air strikes • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
Increased ground operations • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased Israeli strikes • 25%
Increased Syrian government action • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased rebel activity • 25%
Condemnation of Syria • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation of rebels • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Increased Russian Control • 25%
International Intervention • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased Rebel Control • 25%
Assad Regime remains in power • 25%
Rebel forces take control • 25%
International intervention leads to new governance • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
International intervention leads to resolution • 25%
Stalemate situation • 25%
Rebels establish new government • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
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No significant impact • 25%
Destabilizing influence • 25%
Stabilizing influence • 25%
Increased Russian control • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased rebel control • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
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Complete withdrawal • 25%
Stalemate • 25%