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What will be the geopolitical impact of US AI policy under Trump's administration by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened US position • 25%
Heightened US-China tensions • 25%
Improved global AI collaboration • 25%
Other • 25%
Analyses and reports by geopolitical experts or think tanks
Story
OpenAI's Sam Altman to Collaborate with Trump to Fortify US AI Infrastructure in Race Against China
Dec 5, 2024, 10:31 AM
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has publicly endorsed President-elect Donald Trump, emphasizing Trump's leadership as vital for America to win the artificial intelligence race against China. Altman is gearing up to collaborate with Trump to fortify America's AI infrastructure, potentially influencing the administration's policies on AI development, including increased investment in critical technology research such as AI and quantum technology. The endorsement marks an unexpected alliance that could have significant implications for the future of technology and geopolitics. Observers note that Trump's commitment to protecting American businesses through measures such as tariffs and trade policies could bolster the domestic AI industry.
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Moderate Positive Impact • 25%
Significant Positive Impact • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Negative Impact • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Stricter export controls • 25%
Relaxed export controls • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
New international alliances • 25%
Military action • 25%
Increased border security • 25%
New cybersecurity legislation • 25%
Increased funding for cybersecurity • 25%
Formation of new cybersecurity task force • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
OpenAI • 25%
Google • 25%
Microsoft • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Moderate impact • 25%
Significant slowdown • 25%
Acceleration due to alternatives • 25%
No noticeable impact • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Strict controls implemented • 25%
Moderate controls implemented • 25%
No new controls implemented • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New diplomatic agreements • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
Mixed Effects • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased restrictions • 25%
Other policy changes • 25%
Enhanced collaboration • 25%