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What will be the outcome of the U.S. bipartisan push for AI export controls by 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strict controls implemented • 25%
Moderate controls implemented • 25%
No new controls implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official U.S. government announcements or policy documents
Story
U.S. Lawmakers in Bipartisan Push for AI Export Controls Amid Trump's Superpower Comment
Jan 7, 2025, 11:12 PM
U.S. lawmakers, in a bipartisan effort, have called for stringent controls on the export of high-end artificial intelligence technology to prevent China from accessing it. This push comes as the Bureau of Industry and Security is expected to release a new framework on the matter. The urgency to limit China's access to AI technologies is driven by concerns over national security and the potential for these technologies to enhance China's military capabilities. President Donald Trump has emphasized the importance of maintaining U.S. leadership in AI, describing it as a 'superpower' in the race against China. Additionally, a technology industry group, representing companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, has urged the Biden administration to refrain from implementing last-minute rules that would control global access to AI chips, citing potential risks to U.S. leadership in AI.
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Other outcomes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Relaxed export controls • 25%
Stricter export controls • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
Acceleration due to alternatives • 25%
Significant slowdown • 25%
No noticeable impact • 25%
Significant Positive Impact • 25%
Moderate Positive Impact • 25%
Negative Impact • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Safety and risk mitigation • 25%
Economic impact and job protection • 25%
Data privacy and security • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened US position • 25%
Heightened US-China tensions • 25%
Improved global AI collaboration • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Positive impact • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%